FulhamDraw 28%Bournemouth
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.53
59% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.45
66% probability
Fulham's home scoring average of 1.6 goals per
game, coupled with Bournemouth's recent away form, supports a home
win. The model gives Fulham a 46%
win probability, higher than the implied probability from the
odds.
💡 Fulham's consistency at home, scoring in 8 of their last 10 matches, contrasts with Bournemouth's improving but still inconsistent away defense, suggesting value in a home
win.
Final Result
Fulham 0 : 1 Bournemouth
Our prediction: 1 โ
Fulham hosts Bournemouth at Craven Cottage, London, where the Premier League clash presents intriguing betting opportunities. With both teams separated by just one point in the league standings, the match holds significant implications for mid-table positioning. Fulham's stable home form contrasts with Bournemouth's improving away performances, setting the stage for a tightly contested encounter. As the betting markets suggest, finding value will require a keen eye on implied probabilities and recent trends, particularly in goal-scoring patterns.
Avg Scored1.2
Avg Conceded1.3
Over 2.560%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets3
Avg Scored1.65
Avg Conceded1.5
Over 2.560%
BTTS80%
Clean Sheets4
๐๏ธVenue
Craven Cottage, London
29,589 capacity ยท Grass
โญ Fulham โ Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| H. Wilson | Midfielder | 10 | 6 | 7.18 | 32 | 34 |
| J. Andersen | Defender | 0 | 1 | 7.08 | 31 | 7 |
| A. Iwobi | Midfielder | 4 | 3 | 7.06 | 27 | 40 |
| H. Reed | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 6.95 | 6 | 1 |
| K. Tete | Defender | 1 | 0 | 6.93 | 22 | 11 |
โญ Bournemouth โ Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| M. Senesi | Defender | 0 | 5 | 7.19 | 33 | 23 |
| A. Semenyo | Midfielder | 10 | 3 | 7.13 | 20 | 25 |
| A. Scott | Midfielder | 3 | 1 | 7.08 | 34 | 25 |
| J. Hill | Defender | 0 | 3 | 6.98 | 25 | 10 |
| ฤ. Petroviฤ | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.87 | 34 | 0 |
๐ Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.5
Double Chance X21.5
Double Chance 121.22
Over 1.5 Goals1.18
Under 1.5 Goals4.75
Current Form Guide
Fulham's recent form shows stability with a pattern of LWDLW in their last five matches, maintaining a consistent 1.4 points per game. At home, they have secured 10 wins out of 17, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game. Bournemouth, meanwhile, is on an upward trajectory, having drawn three and won two of their last five, highlighting their resilience with an improving defensive record. Their away form has been solid, with 5 wins and 7 draws from 17 outings, indicating a challenging opponent for Fulham.
Best Bet Recommendation
The highest-value market appears to be a Fulham win at odds of 2.52, which translates to an implied probability of 39.68%. Given the model's 46% probability for a Fulham victory, there is a clear edge in backing the home side. This is supported by Fulham's strong home form and Bournemouth's vulnerability in away matches, despite their recent improvements. Additionally, considering a Double Chance bet on Fulham (1X) at odds of 1.5 could provide a safer alternative, offering a cushion against a draw while still yielding value.
Goals & Market Analysis
The expected goals (xG) model predicts a total of 2.98 goals, indicating a high-scoring affair. Fulham's home matches average 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, aligning with a 60% historical rate for over 2.5 goals. Similarly, Bournemouth's away games average 1.64 goals scored and 1.45 conceded, with 60% of their recent matches also exceeding 2.5 goals. The odds for over 2.5 goals stand at 1.53, reflecting a 59% implied probability, slightly below the model's estimate. Both teams tend to score and concede late, with 22 and 28 first-half goals, respectively, indicating a likelihood for late match action.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Fulham is predicted to
win with a 46% probability. This is supported by their superior home form, where they have averaged 1.6 goals per
game, and a consistent defensive record, conceding just 1.1 goals on average. Bournemouth's recent away improvements are noted, but Fulham's home advantage provides the edge.
2
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Yes, the probability for over 2.5 goals is 59%, supported by both
teams' recent matches often exceeding this threshold. The
odds for over 2.5 goals are 1.53, reflecting market confidence in a high-scoring
match.
3
What is Fulham's recent form?
Fulham's last five results are LWDLW, indicating stable form. At home, they have secured 10
wins, averaging 1.6 goals scored per
match and achieving 5 clean sheets, maintaining steady performance at Craven Cottage.
4
Is the Double Chance
bet worth it for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
The Double Chance
odds are 1.5 for both 1X and X2. Fulham's home form and the model's 46%
win probability make 1X (Fulham or Draw) a viable option, offering a combined probability of 74% against the implied
odds probability, suggesting potential value.
5
Is Over 1.5 goals a safe
bet in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
With an 80% probability for over 1.5 goals, it is a safe
bet. The
odds are 1.18, reflecting high confidence. Fulham's matches have exceeded 1.5 goals in 16 of their last 20, and Bournemouth's in 17, supporting the
bet's likelihood.
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Premier League09.05.2026
