🏆
Prediction
Liverpool @ 1.9
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.5
66% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.44
53% probability
Liverpool's strong home form and Chelsea's recent struggles make them the favorites. Liverpool has scored an average of 2.9 goals at home, while Chelsea has conceded 1.91 goals on average away. Additionally, Liverpool's xG of 3.64 strongly supports a home victory.
💡 Despite Chelsea's higher average goals scored away, their defensive vulnerabilities on the road could be their undoing against Liverpool's potent home attack.
Final Result
Liverpool 1 : 1 Chelsea
Our prediction: 1 ✗
As Liverpool prepares to host Chelsea at Anfield, the stage is set for a crucial Premier League encounter. With Liverpool sitting in fourth place, they are keen to solidify their Champions League spot, while Chelsea, languishing in ninth, desperately needs a win to keep their hopes of European football alive. This match is more than just three points; it's about maintaining momentum and making a statement in the final stretch of the season.
Avg Scored2
Avg Conceded1.25
Over 2.565%
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets6
Avg Scored1.9
Avg Conceded1.7
Over 2.575%
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets3
🏟️Venue
Anfield, Liverpool
61,276 capacity · Grass
⭐ Liverpool — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| V. van Dijk | Defender | 4 | 0 | 7.29 | 34 | 11 |
| D. Szoboszlai | Midfielder | 5 | 4 | 7.21 | 32 | 61 |
| I. Konaté | Defender | 1 | 0 | 7.13 | 32 | 7 |
| R. Ngumoha | Attacker | 2 | 0 | 7.03 | 15 | 11 |
| C. Gakpo | Midfielder | 6 | 5 | 6.95 | 32 | 48 |
⭐ Chelsea — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| R. James | Defender | 2 | 4 | 7.20 | 27 | 27 |
| M. Caicedo | Midfielder | 3 | 1 | 7.19 | 29 | 14 |
| E. Fernández | Midfielder | 8 | 3 | 7.14 | 32 | 58 |
| C. Palmer | Midfielder | 9 | 1 | 7.07 | 22 | 23 |
| João Pedro | Attacker | 14 | 5 | 7.06 | 32 | 28 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.25
Double Chance X21.85
Double Chance 121.22
Over 1.5 Goals1.17
Under 1.5 Goals5
Form Comparison
Liverpool enters this fixture with a mixed bag of recent results, showing strong home performances with wins over Crystal Palace and Fulham. Their form at Anfield has been robust, averaging 2.9 goals scored per game. Chelsea, on the other hand, has struggled significantly, losing their last five matches in the league. Despite some high-scoring away games earlier in the season, their recent away form has been less than convincing. This contrast in form highlights the momentum advantage Liverpool possesses heading into this clash.
Expert Prediction
Considering Liverpool's formidable home record and Chelsea's current slump, the prediction leans towards a Liverpool victory. The expected goals model supports this, with Liverpool's xG significantly higher at 3.64 compared to Chelsea's 1. The pressure is particularly on Chelsea to perform, as their hopes of European qualification dwindle with each missed opportunity. Priced at odds of 1.9, a Liverpool win appears to offer good value based on their superior home form and Chelsea's defensive frailties.
Match Stakes & Context
The stakes are high as Liverpool and Chelsea face off in this Premier League showdown. Liverpool, currently fourth with 58 points, are within touching distance of securing a Champions League spot. A win would not only bolster their position but also add pressure to teams around them. Conversely, Chelsea finds themselves in ninth place with 48 points, a precarious position that threatens their European ambitions. With a goal difference of +8, Chelsea needs to turn their fortunes around quickly. This match is pivotal for both teams, as Liverpool aims to cement their top-four status, while Chelsea fights to stay relevant in the European race.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Liverpool is predicted to
win with a 77% probability. They average 2.9 goals at home, and Chelsea's recent form shows a declining trend with five consecutive losses. Liverpool's xG of 3.64 further supports this prediction.
2
What are the
odds for Liverpool vs Chelsea?
Liverpool: 1.9, Draw: 3.7, Chelsea: 3.65. Implied probabilities are Liverpool 52.63%, Draw 27.03%, Chelsea 27.40%. The model favors a Liverpool
win, making their
odds of 1.9 a value
bet compared to the implied probability.
3
The BTTS probability is 53%, with
odds of 1.44 for Yes. Historically, BTTS occurred in 50% of their last 10 meetings. Chelsea's lower clean sheet rate suggests they are more likely to concede.
4
What is the best
bet for Liverpool vs Chelsea?
The best value
bet is a Liverpool
win at
odds of 1.9. The model probability of 77% vs implied
odds probability of 52.63% presents a significant value edge.
5
What does the head-to-head record say about Liverpool vs Chelsea?
In the last 10 meetings, Liverpool has 5
wins, Chelsea 2, and 3 draws. The average goals per meeting are 1.8, with 40% of matches going over 2.5 goals. Liverpool has shown recent dominance in this fixture.
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Premier League09.05.2026
