NewcastleDraw 26%West Ham
🏆
Prediction
Newcastle @ 2.05
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.48
64% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.42
71% probability
Newcastle's attacking prowess at home, averaging 1.78 goals per
game, gives them an edge against a struggling West Ham side fighting relegation. Given Newcastle's recent victory over Brighton, confidence is high.
💡 Newcastle's home performances see them scoring frequently in the first half, crucial for setting the
match tempo, especially with Bruno Guimarães orchestrating the midfield.
Final Result
Newcastle 3 : 1 West Ham
Our prediction: 1 ✓
The atmosphere at St. James' Park is electric as Newcastle prepare to face West Ham. Both teams are desperate for points; Newcastle aiming for a top-half finish, while West Ham fights to escape relegation. The stakes are high as the Magpies look to capitalize on their home advantage against a Hammers side struggling to find form on the road.
Avg Scored1.75
Avg Conceded2.05
Over 2.580%
BTTS90%
Clean Sheets1
Avg Scored1.4
Avg Conceded1.3
Over 2.555%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets6
🏟️Venue
St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
52,758 capacity · Grass
⭐ Newcastle — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Bruno Guimarães | Midfielder | 9 | 5 | 7.48 | 27 | 46 |
| F. Schär | Defender | 0 | 0 | 7.12 | 16 | 4 |
| A. Gordon | Attacker | 6 | 2 | 7.08 | 26 | 26 |
| M. Thiaw | Defender | 4 | 0 | 7.05 | 33 | 6 |
| S. Botman | Defender | 1 | 1 | 7.03 | 23 | 8 |
⭐ West Ham — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| K. Mavropanos | Defender | 3 | 0 | 7.03 | 29 | 4 |
| J. Bowen | Attacker | 8 | 10 | 6.98 | 36 | 43 |
| J. Ward-Prowse | Midfielder | 0 | 0 | 6.90 | 5 | 12 |
| Lucas Paquetá | Attacker | 4 | 1 | 6.89 | 18 | 23 |
| M. Hermansen | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.84 | 16 | 1 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.35
Double Chance X21.73
Double Chance 121.2
Over 1.5 Goals1.15
Under 1.5 Goals5.25
Match Verdict
Expect Newcastle to leverage their home strength, where they've been prolific in front of goal. Bruno Guimarães and Anthony Gordon are key to breaking down West Ham's defense. The Hammers' away form is a concern, with limited goal-scoring opportunities. With odds of 2.05 for a Newcastle win, the value is evident given their superior home record and West Ham's relegation pressures. A high-scoring match is likely, aligning with Newcastle's average of 2 goals conceded at home.
Tactical Breakdown
Newcastle lines up in a 4-3-3 formation, leveraging Bruno Guimarães' creativity in midfield, who has contributed 9 goals and 5 assists this season. His vision and ability to deliver key passes are pivotal in unlocking defenses. The Magpies rely on quick transitions and high pressing to disrupt West Ham's buildup. West Ham, deploying a 4-2-3-1, will depend on Jarrod Bowen's attacking flair. With 8 goals and 10 assists, Bowen's link-up play and ability to exploit spaces are vital. The midfield battle will be intense, with Newcastle looking to dominate possession and West Ham aiming to absorb pressure and counterattack.
Statistical Edge
Newcastle's home statistics reveal a strong offensive presence, scoring 33 goals with an average of 1.78 per game. Their defense, however, concedes 2 goals per match, highlighting vulnerability. In contrast, West Ham struggles away, scoring just 1.11 goals on average while conceding 1.56. The Magpies' tendency to score in the first half (32 goals) could be crucial, while West Ham's more balanced goal distribution suggests resilience. Clean sheets are rare for both, with Newcastle's home defense particularly porous, setting the stage for a high-scoring affair.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
What is the correct
score prediction for Newcastle vs West Ham?
The model's most likely
score is 1-1, but given Newcastle's home advantage and West Ham's defensive frailties, a 2-1
win for Newcastle aligns with their xG of 1.88.
2
What is the best
bet for Newcastle vs West Ham?
The best value
bet is a Newcastle
win at
odds of 2.05. The model probability suggests a 50% chance, providing an edge over implied
odds probability.
3
What is Newcastle's recent form?
In their last 5 matches, Newcastle's form reads DWLLL. At home, they have won 9
games, with an average of 1.78 goals scored, but have kept only 3 clean sheets. Their form is declining.
4
What is at stake in Newcastle vs West Ham?
Newcastle, ranked 13th with 46 points, aim for a top-half finish. West Ham, 18th with 36 points, are in relegation danger, needing points to escape the drop.
5
Is the Double Chance
bet worth it for Newcastle vs West Ham?
Double Chance 1X is priced at 1.35, X2 at 1.73, and 12 at 1.2. The 1X option offers a 74% probability, providing value over implied
odds of 74.1%.
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Premier League17.05.2026
