BurnleyDraw 33%Aston Villa
🏆
Prediction
Burnley @ 4.85
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.73
51% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.77
59% probability
Burnley's recent form is poor, but their home scoring average of 1.27 goals per
game offers a glimmer of hope against Aston Villa, who have conceded an average of 1.25 goals in away matches. The
odds suggest value in a home
win.
💡 Despite their overall struggles, Burnley has a 60% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating potential for at least one goal against Aston Villa.
Final Result
Burnley 2 : 2 Aston Villa
Our prediction: 1 ✗
Burnley hosts Aston Villa at Turf Moor on May 10, 2026, in a Premier League clash that highlights contrasting ambitions. Burnley, ranked 19th, is fighting relegation, while Aston Villa, in 5th place, aims for a Champions League spot. With Burnley's recent form showing five consecutive losses, they need a turnaround against a Villa side that has been inconsistent away from home.
Avg Scored1.1
Avg Conceded2
Over 2.555%
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets2
Avg Scored1.4
Avg Conceded1.4
Over 2.545%
BTTS55%
Clean Sheets5
🏟️Venue
Turf Moor, Burnley
22,546 capacity · Grass
⭐ Burnley — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| M. Dúbravka | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.99 | 35 | 0 |
| J. Cullen | Midfielder | 2 | 2 | 6.91 | 18 | 13 |
| J. Ward-Prowse | Midfielder | 0 | 1 | 6.81 | 10 | 10 |
| J. Anthony | Midfielder | 7 | 2 | 6.81 | 34 | 35 |
| Z. Flemming | Midfielder | 9 | 0 | 6.80 | 26 | 9 |
⭐ Aston Villa — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Y. Tielemans | Midfielder | 0 | 4 | 7.17 | 22 | 29 |
| B. Kamara | Midfielder | 1 | 3 | 7.11 | 18 | 15 |
| A. Onana | Midfielder | 2 | 0 | 7.05 | 24 | 7 |
| E. Konsa | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.99 | 32 | 5 |
| J. McGinn | Midfielder | 4 | 3 | 6.93 | 27 | 37 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X2.3
Double Chance X21.15
Double Chance 121.18
Over 1.5 Goals1.22
Under 1.5 Goals4.2
Form & Season Statistics
Burnley enters this match on a five-game losing streak, conceding an average of 2.13 goals per game recently. Their home form offers a slight reprieve, with an average of 1.27 goals scored per game at Turf Moor, though they have failed to score in 8 of their last 20 matches. Their defense remains porous, with only two clean sheets in the same period. Aston Villa, meanwhile, has shown more stability with two wins in their last five matches. They average 1.4 goals per game, both scored and conceded, indicating a balanced but vulnerable side. Their away form is less impressive, scoring just 0.88 goals per game, which could be a concern against a Burnley side needing points.
Head-to-Head History
In the last 10 meetings, Aston Villa has been dominant with five wins compared to Burnley's two, and three draws. Matches between these teams have been high-scoring, averaging 3.1 goals per game, with 70% of them going over 2.5 goals. Historically, Turf Moor has not been a fortress for Burnley against Aston Villa, as they have lost three of the last five home encounters against this opponent.
Prediction & Best Bet
The prediction for this match leans towards a Burnley win, priced at odds of 4.85. Despite their poor recent form, their home scoring capability could exploit Aston Villa's defensive vulnerabilities on the road. The Double Chance bet on Burnley or a draw at odds of 2.3 could offer more safety. The expected goals model suggests a close match, with Burnley having an xG of 1.18 compared to Aston Villa's 0.9, implying a slight edge for the home side.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Burnley vs Aston Villa?
The predicted winner is Burnley with a 36% probability. Burnley's home scoring average of 1.27 goals per
game and Aston Villa's away defensive record, conceding 1.25 goals per
game, support this prediction.
2
There is a 59% chance for both
teams to
score. The
odds for BTTS Yes are 1.77. With Burnley's recent 60% BTTS rate, they are more likely to
score against Aston Villa, which has managed five clean sheets in their last 20 matches.
3
What is Burnley's recent form?
Burnley has lost their last 5 matches, with results of L 1-3, L 0-1, L 1-4, L 0-2, and L 1-3. At home, they have 2
wins, averaging 1.27 goals scored and achieving 4 clean sheets. Their form is declining.
4
What is at stake in Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Burnley, currently 19th with 20 points, faces relegation pressure. Aston Villa is 5th with 58 points, aiming to secure a Champions League spot. The gap to safety for Burnley is significant, making this
match crucial.
5
Is the Double Chance
bet worth it for Burnley vs Aston Villa?
The Double Chance on Burnley or a draw (1X) is priced at 2.3, offering a 43.5% implied probability. This provides value compared to the model's 36% probability of a Burnley
win, suggesting a potentially safer
bet.
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Premier League10.05.2026
