Granada CFDraw 17%Sporting Gijon
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES
59% probability
Most analysts will say Granada CF is the favourite due to their higher xG of 2.25 compared to Sporting Gijon's 1.11, but look at what the data actually shows: Granada's home scoring rate of 1.7 goals per
game offers a strong edge. Sporting Gijon's shaky away form, allowing 1.73 goals on average, only bolsters Granada's chances.
💡 Despite Granada's recent poor form, their ability to
score more at home (1.7 goals per
game) compared to Sporting Gijon's away defense issues (conceding 1.73 on average) suggests an overlooked home advantage.
Final Result
Granada CF 1 : 2 Sporting Gijon
Our prediction: 1 ✗
In the clash between Granada CF and Sporting Gijon at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, most predict a straightforward victory for the home side. However, the real intrigue lies beneath the surface. With Granada's declining form and Gijon's unpredictable away performances, this match presents more questions than answers. Which team can harness the momentum and turn statistics into a decisive advantage?
Avg Scored1.4
Avg Conceded1.4
Over 2.540%
BTTS45%
Clean Sheets6
Avg Scored1.55
Avg Conceded1.3
Over 2.560%
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets4
🏟️Venue
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Granada
23,156 capacity · Grass
⭐ Granada CF — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| L. Zidane | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.02 | 26 | 4 |
| Manu Lama | Defender | 3 | 1 | 6.99 | 32 | 6 |
| Sergio Ruiz | Midfielder | 0 | 2 | 6.88 | 32 | 23 |
| Loïc Williams | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.86 | 35 | 10 |
| M. Hongla | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 6.80 | 4 | 2 |
⭐ Sporting Gijon — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Jonathan Dubasin | Midfielder | 16 | 3 | 7.09 | 35 | 26 |
| J. Otero | Attacker | 13 | 12 | 7.09 | 33 | 31 |
| Pablo Vázquez | Defender | 3 | 1 | 7.03 | 35 | 8 |
| César Gelabert | Midfielder | 8 | 3 | 7.01 | 39 | 77 |
| Álex Corredera | Midfielder | 1 | 2 | 6.99 | 37 | 51 |
Form & Key Players
Granada's recent form is troubling, with a record of LLWLL, scoring just 4 goals in their last 5 matches. Sergio Ruiz, despite not scoring, remains crucial with 23 key passes this season. Sporting Gijon, on the other hand, also face inconsistency with a WLLLW record, yet Jonathan Dubasin’s 16 goals highlight their attacking threat. J. Otero's creativity with 12 assists could be pivotal. Which team’s key players will step up and shift their team's fortunes?
Match Prediction
The prediction tilts towards a Granada CF victory, priced at odds of 1.72. Despite their form dip, their home scoring efficiency and Sporting Gijon's defensive frailties on the road suggest a likely home win. But can Gijon's dynamic duo, Dubasin and Otero, disrupt the expected narrative? With the home side's scoring prowess and the visitor's leaky defense, Granada's triumph seems probable, yet never guaranteed.
Home Ground Advantage
Granada CF's home ground advantage is not as straightforward as it seems. While they score an average of 1.7 goals per game at home, surpassing their away tally, they also concede 1.4 goals. This duality suggests a vulnerability that Sporting Gijon might exploit, especially given their higher scoring rate of 1.55 goals per game overall. However, Gijon's away form is less impressive, scoring just 1.27 goals on average while conceding 1.73. Could Granada's home consistency be the deciding factor in a match where both teams have struggled to maintain form?
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon?
Granada CF is predicted to
win with a 58% probability, driven by their superior xG of 2.25 and better home scoring rate of 1.7 goals per
game. Sporting Gijon's away struggles, conceding 1.73 goals on average, further tilt the
odds in Granada's favor.
2
What is the best
bet for Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon?
The best value
bet is Granada CF to
Win, priced at
odds of 1.72. The model shows a 58% probability for a home
win, suggesting a value edge over the implied
odds probability.
3
What is Granada CF's recent form?
Granada CF's recent form is LLWLL, with home performances showing 6
wins and an average of 1.7 goals scored per
game. However, they have been on a declining trend recently.
4
What is the Draw No
Bet option for Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon?
In a Draw No
Bet scenario, your stake is returned if the
match ends in a draw. Granada CF is favored with DNB
odds of 1.30, offering a safer option with moderate value compared to the straight
win.
5
Are there injury concerns for Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon?
Both squads appear fit with no significant injuries reported. This lack of absences allows both
teams to field their strongest lineups, potentially affecting the balance of play.
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Segunda División30.05.2026
