FiorentinaDraw 25%Atalanta
🏆
Prediction
Fiorentina @ 2.68
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
NO @ 1.62
48% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.5
52% probability
Fiorentina have shown resilience at home with a consistent defensive record, conceding only 0.9 goals per
game. Atalanta's recent form includes a shaky defense, letting in 1.7 goals on average away. Fiorentina's higher xG of 1.5 further supports a home
win.
💡 Despite Fiorentina's overall lower rank, their expected goals at home suggest they can outperform Atalanta, who struggle defensively on the road.
Final Result
Fiorentina 1 : 1 Atalanta
Our prediction: 1 ✗
As Fiorentina prepare to host Atalanta in Serie A, fans are in for an exciting clash. With Fiorentina looking to finish the season on a high note and Atalanta aiming to secure a spot in European competitions, both teams have plenty at stake. Expect a thrilling encounter as these two sides bring their unique strengths to the field.
Avg Scored1.3
Avg Conceded1.15
Over 2.555%
BTTS45%
Clean Sheets8
Avg Scored1.45
Avg Conceded1.55
Over 2.555%
BTTS65%
Clean Sheets4
⭐ Fiorentina — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| N. Fagioli | Midfielder | 2 | 3 | 7.25 | 33 | 62 |
| R. Mandragora | Midfielder | 7 | 3 | 7.03 | 33 | 34 |
| David de Gea | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.98 | 37 | 1 |
| Dodô | Midfielder | 1 | 2 | 6.98 | 35 | 50 |
| L. Ranieri | Defender | 1 | 0 | 6.88 | 34 | 7 |
⭐ Atalanta — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| M. Carnesecchi | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.34 | 37 | 0 |
| C. De Ketelaere | Attacker | 3 | 5 | 7.28 | 30 | 62 |
| G. Scalvini | Defender | 3 | 1 | 7.09 | 23 | 15 |
| M. de Roon | Midfielder | 1 | 2 | 7.05 | 33 | 22 |
| Éderson | Midfielder | 2 | 1 | 6.99 | 30 | 25 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.5
Double Chance X21.45
Double Chance 121.25
Over 1.5 Goals1.2
Under 1.5 Goals4.33
Historical Data
In their last ten meetings, Fiorentina have the upper hand with five wins, while Atalanta have claimed four victories. Matches between these sides tend to be closely contested, with an average of 2.8 goals per game. However, only 40% of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them. This suggests a tightly matched contest where defenses could play a crucial role.
Model Output & Recommendation
The Poisson model predicts a Fiorentina victory with a 50% probability, supported by their solid home defense and Atalanta's leaky away record. The confidence score of 88% combines data agreement and consistency metrics. Fiorentina's odds of 2.68 offer value compared to the model's implied probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, aligning with the model's expectation of a low-scoring affair.
Statistical Deep Dive
Fiorentina have been solid at home, scoring an average of 1.1 goals while conceding just 0.9 per game. Their form has been declining, but they recently defeated Juventus away, showing their potential to surprise. Atalanta, on the other hand, score 1.6 goals on average away but concede 1.7, indicating vulnerability on the road. Their recent form is inconsistent, with only one win in the last five games. The xG model gives Fiorentina an edge with an expected 1.5 goals compared to Atalanta's 0.91, suggesting a possible home win.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Fiorentina are predicted to
win with a 50% probability. They have a strong home defense, conceding just 0.9 goals per
game, and their xG of 1.5 suggests they can outscore Atalanta. Meanwhile, Atalanta's defense has been shaky, especially away from home.
2
What are the
odds for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Fiorentina are priced at 2.68, the draw at 3.45, and Atalanta at 2.45. Implied probabilities are 37.31% for Fiorentina, 28.99% for a draw, and 40.82% for Atalanta. Fiorentina's
odds represent value compared to the model's 50%
win probability.
3
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
The total xG is 2.41, and with only 40% of recent head-to-heads going over 2.5, it's unlikely. The
odds for over 2.5 are 1.62. Given these factors, a low-scoring
game is expected, so the recommendation is no.
4
What is the correct
score prediction for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
The model's most likely
score is 1-0 to Fiorentina, which aligns with their stronger xG of 1.5 compared to Atalanta's 0.91. Fiorentina's solid home defense boosts this prediction.
5
With BTTS happening in 52% of their past meetings and Fiorentina's strong defense, it's unlikely. The
odds for BTTS Yes are 1.5, but Atalanta's tendency to fail to
score away suggests BTTS No is more probable.
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Serie A22.05.2026
