⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.8
56% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.67
55% probability
Girona's implied
win probability of 50% (100/2.00) is lower than the model's 66%, indicating value. Girona's recent home form and a previous
win against Mallorca this season support this prediction.
💡 Girona's consistent scoring at home, averaging 1.38 goals per
game, combined with Mallorca's away struggles, scoring only 0.6 per
game, creates an edge in Girona's favor.
Final Result
Girona 0 : 1 Mallorca
Our prediction: 1 ✗
The upcoming La Liga clash between Girona and Mallorca on May 1, 2026, presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors to explore market discrepancies. Girona, hosting at their home ground, are looking to capitalize on their relatively strong home form against a Mallorca side that has struggled on the road. With both teams close in the standings and fighting to secure their top-flight status, the stakes are high. Analyzing the statistical trends and market odds provides insight into where the value lies in this matchup.
Avg Scored1.2
Avg Conceded1.3
Over 2.555%
BTTS60%
Clean Sheets4
Avg Scored1.3
Avg Conceded1.5
Over 2.570%
BTTS65%
Clean Sheets2
⭐ Girona — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| V. Krapyvtsov | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.20 | 2 | 0 |
| P. Gazzaniga | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.09 | 30 | 0 |
| D. Blind | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.96 | 30 | 11 |
| Fran Beltrán | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 6.95 | 12 | 9 |
| V. Tsygankov | Attacker | 6 | 4 | 6.91 | 27 | 42 |
⭐ Mallorca — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| D. Greif | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.70 | 4 | 0 |
| L. Bergström | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.10 | 5 | 0 |
| V. Muriqi | Attacker | 21 | 1 | 7.09 | 32 | 15 |
| Leo Román | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.05 | 28 | 0 |
| Raíllo | Defender | 0 | 1 | 6.97 | 23 | 7 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.3
Double Chance X21.77
Double Chance 121.22
Over 1.5 Goals1.25
Under 1.5 Goals3.75
Current Form Guide
Girona's recent form is declining, with a record of LLDWL in their last five matches, highlighting inconsistency. However, at home, they have managed six wins, including significant victories against top teams. In contrast, Mallorca's form shows improvement, with two wins and a draw in their last five. Despite this, their away record is poor, with just one win in 16 attempts, suggesting vulnerability on the road. These trends indicate Girona's home advantage could be pivotal.
Best Bet Recommendation
The highest-value market for this match appears to be Girona to win, priced attractively at odds of 2.00. The model's 66% win probability for Girona provides a significant edge over the implied probability of 50% from the odds. Girona's home scoring rate and Mallorca's defensive frailties away from home support this prediction. Additionally, considering a Double Chance bet on Girona (1X) at odds of 1.30 offers a safer alternative with reduced risk, given Girona's stronger home performances.
Goals & Market Analysis
The expected goals (xG) model suggests a total of 2.56, with Girona contributing significantly more. Girona's home matches see them scoring 1.38 goals on average, while Mallorca concedes 1.8 goals per away game, aligning with the over 2.5 goals market which is priced at 1.80. Historically, 55% of Girona's matches and 70% of Mallorca's have exceeded this threshold, reinforcing the potential for a high-scoring encounter. The BTTS market is also appealing with a 55% likelihood, priced at 1.67, supported by both teams' tendency to find the net.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Girona vs Mallorca?
Girona is predicted to
win with a 66% probability. Key reasons include Girona's higher xG of 2.05 compared to Mallorca's 0.51 and their strong home form where they
score 1.38 goals per
game.
2
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Girona vs Mallorca?
Yes, with a 56% probability for over 2.5 goals. Girona's matches have seen over 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and Mallorca's 70%. The
odds are 1.80, indicating a favorable market position.
3
What is Girona's recent form?
Girona's last five results are LLDWL, scoring 5 and conceding 7. At home, they have 6
wins, averaging 1.38 goals scored per
game, with 5 clean sheets, though their form is declining.
4
Is the Double Chance
bet worth it for Girona vs Mallorca?
The Double Chance
bet for Girona (1X) is priced at 1.30, offering a 77% implied probability. Given Girona's stronger home form, this provides a favorable risk-adjusted value compared to the model's 66%
win probability.
5
Is Over 1.5 goals a safe
bet in Girona vs Mallorca?
The Over 1.5 goals market has a 72% probability, priced at 1.25. Both
teams frequently exceed this mark, with 15 out of their last 20 matches seeing at least 2 goals, making it a relatively safe
bet.
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