🏆
Prediction
Leganes @ 1.91
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.73
55% probability
🔁
YES @ 1.67
52% probability
Leganes have a model probability of 63% to
win, translating to implied
odds of 1.59, offering value against market
odds of 1.91. Their head-to-head dominance and home scoring average strengthen this position.
💡 Despite their recent poor form, Leganes' historical success against Mirandes, with five
wins and four draws in the last nine meetings, suggests a psychological advantage that the market might undervalue.
Final Result
Leganes 1 : 0 Mirandes
Our prediction: 1 ✓
The match between Leganes and Mirandes at Estadio Municipal de Butarque presents a critical opportunity for both teams to secure vital points as they battle relegation. Leganes, ranked 18th, have a slight edge in the market with odds of 1.91, reflecting their home advantage and historical dominance against Mirandes. With both teams struggling in form, this clash is pivotal in determining their Segunda División fate. The market suggests a tight contest, but Leganes' previous success against Mirandes could offer value for bettors looking to capitalize on historical trends.
Avg Scored0.95
Avg Conceded1.5
Over 2.550%
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets5
Avg Scored1.25
Avg Conceded1.65
Over 2.565%
BTTS70%
Clean Sheets0
🏟️Venue
Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganés
12,450 capacity · Grass
⭐ Leganes — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Juan Soriano | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 7.03 | 41 | 1 |
| Duk | Midfielder | 4 | 5 | 6.98 | 37 | 35 |
| Lalo Aguilar | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.90 | 32 | 12 |
| Ignasi Miquel | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.89 | 28 | 5 |
| S. Cissé | Midfielder | 3 | 2 | 6.89 | 34 | 37 |
⭐ Mirandes — Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| Juanpa | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.96 | 25 | 2 |
| Adrián Pica | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Marino Illescas | Midfielder | 0 | 1 | 6.86 | 11 | 9 |
| Ismael Barea | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 6.76 | 11 | 4 |
| G. Petit | Attacker | 4 | 1 | 6.73 | 19 | 5 |
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.25
Double Chance X21.83
Double Chance 121.29
Over 1.5 Goals1.18
Under 1.5 Goals3.95
Current Form Guide
Leganes' recent form is troubling, with a record of LDLLL in their last five games, signaling a decline. Their home performances offer a glimmer of hope, having scored 1.3 goals on average. Mirandes, on the other hand, are showing signs of improvement with a WDLLW form, suggesting potential momentum. Despite Mirandes' upward trend, their away form remains a concern, having conceded heavily. The market reflects uncertainty, but Leganes' historical dominance over Mirandes might see them regain some form at home.
Best Bet Recommendation
The highest-value market in this match appears to be a Leganes win, priced at odds of 1.91. With a model probability of 63%, this provides a significant edge against the implied probability of 52.36%. Leganes' scoring capability at home and Mirandes' defensive frailties away enhance the appeal of this bet. While the Double Chance for Leganes or Draw at 1.25 offers a safer option, the potential value lies in backing a straight Leganes victory. The xG and historical head-to-head record further solidify this recommendation as a value play.
Goals & Market Analysis
The expected goals (xG) for this match indicate a potential for goals, with Leganes at 2.23 and Mirandes at 0.97, totaling 3.2. The market offers odds of 1.73 for Over 2.5 goals, aligning closely with a 55% model probability. Both teams have shown tendencies to be involved in high-scoring games, with Mirandes seeing Over 2.5 goals in 65% of their last 20 matches. Leganes' home scoring average of 1.3 goals suggests they often find the net, while Mirandes' away defense, conceding 2.11 on average, further supports the likelihood of multiple goals. The BTTS market is priced at 1.67, with a 52% chance of occurring, given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Leganes vs Mirandes?
Leganes are predicted to
win with a 63% probability. This is supported by their superior xG of 2.23 and historical head-to-head record, having never lost to Mirandes in the last nine meetings.
2
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Leganes vs Mirandes?
Yes, with a model probability of 55% for Over 2.5 goals, and priced at 1.73, this market shows potential. Both
teams' recent matches have frequently seen high goal totals, aligning with this prediction.
3
What is Leganes's recent form?
Leganes have a recent form of LDLLL, scoring 0.95 goals on average per
game. At home, they've won 6, with an average of 1.3 goals scored and 6 clean sheets, but are currently declining.
4
Is the Double Chance
bet worth it for Leganes vs Mirandes?
The Double Chance 1X is priced at 1.25, offering a safer
bet with a 89% implied probability. Given Leganes' historical advantage and home form, this
bet provides solid coverage.
5
Is Over 1.5 goals a safe
bet in Leganes vs Mirandes?
With a model probability of 83% for Over 1.5 goals and
odds of 1.18, this is a safe
bet. Both
teams' last 20 matches frequently exceeded this threshold, reinforcing its security.
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Segunda División31.05.2026
