⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
YES @ 1.73
54% probability
🔁
NO @ 1.65
46% probability
Wolves have a model probability of 67% to
win, which translates to an implied probability that suggests value against the market
odds of 3.55. Wolves' home scoring rate and the xG advantage over Fulham support this view.
💡 Wolves' expected goals (xG) of 2.18 significantly outpaces Fulham's 0.67, indicating a strong offensive edge for the home side, often overlooked due to their league position.
Final Result
Wolves 1 : 1 Fulham
Our prediction: 1 โ
As Wolves host Fulham at Molineux Stadium in Wolverhampton, the betting markets present intriguing opportunities. Wolves, despite sitting at the bottom of the league, have shown flashes of resilience at home. Fulham, mid-table, are aiming to consolidate their position. The market odds for Wolves at 3.55 suggest potential value given their home scoring trends and the model's 67% win probability. This match offers a chance to capitalize on market discrepancies, with Wolves' home performance providing a potential edge.
Avg Scored1.1
Avg Conceded1.5
Over 2.550%
BTTS40%
Clean Sheets5
Avg Scored1.15
Avg Conceded1.3
Over 2.560%
BTTS50%
Clean Sheets3
๐๏ธVenue
Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, West Midlands
34,624 capacity ยท Grass
โญ Wolves โ Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| S. Johnstone | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.93 | 12 | 0 |
| E. Agbadou | Defender | 0 | 0 | 6.85 | 14 | 4 |
| Josรฉ Sรก | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.83 | 21 | 1 |
| Andrรฉ | Midfielder | 1 | 0 | 6.81 | 33 | 18 |
| J. Bellegarde | Attacker | 1 | 1 | 6.80 | 25 | 14 |
โญ Fulham โ Key Players
| Player | Pos | G | A | Rating | Apps | KP |
|---|
| H. Wilson | Midfielder | 10 | 6 | 7.14 | 34 | 38 |
| A. Iwobi | Midfielder | 4 | 3 | 7.06 | 27 | 40 |
| J. Andersen | Defender | 0 | 1 | 7.04 | 33 | 7 |
| B. Leno | Goalkeeper | 0 | 0 | 6.93 | 36 | 0 |
| K. Tete | Defender | 1 | 0 | 6.93 | 22 | 11 |
๐ Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.83
Double Chance X21.28
Double Chance 121.2
Over 1.5 Goals1.22
Under 1.5 Goals4.2
Current Form Guide
Wolves' recent form shows a string of three losses and two draws, indicating a downward trend. Their home form this season includes 3 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, with an average of 1.64 goals scored per game. Fulham's form is slightly more stable with a win, a draw, and three losses in their last five. Despite this, their away record is weak, with only 4 wins from 18 games. Wolves' declining trend is a concern, but their sporadic home success suggests potential value, especially against a Fulham side struggling on the road.
Best Bet Recommendation
The highest-value market for this match is a Wolves win at odds of 3.55. The model suggests a 67% probability for this outcome, creating a value edge compared to the market odds. Wolves' xG of 2.18 against Fulham's 0.67 supports this prediction, as does their superior home scoring record. Considering Fulham's away vulnerabilities and Wolves' sporadic home form, a Double Chance bet on Wolves or Draw at odds of 1.83 provides a safer, risk-adjusted option.
Goals & Market Analysis
The expected goals (xG) model predicts a total of 2.85 goals, suggesting potential value in the Over 2.5 goals market, priced at 1.73. Wolves' home matches see an average of 1.64 goals scored, while Fulham concedes 1.56 goals away, aligning with a 54% model probability for Over 2.5 goals. Both teams show a tendency to score or concede late, with Wolves evenly splitting goals between halves and Fulham slightly more prolific in the second half. The BTTS (Both Teams to Score) market is priced at 1.65, with a 46% model probability, indicating a moderate risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
1
Who will
win Wolves vs Fulham?
Wolves are predicted to
win with a 67% probability. This is supported by their xG of 2.18 compared to Fulham's 0.67 and their home scoring average of 1.64 goals per
game.
2
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Wolves vs Fulham?
Yes, there is a 54% probability for Over 2.5 goals, aligning with the xG total of 2.85. The
odds for Over 2.5 are priced at 1.73, making it a reasonable
bet given the scoring trends.
3
What is Wolves's recent form?
Wolves' last five results are L-D-L-L-L, with their home record showing 3
wins, an average of 1.64 goals scored, and 3 clean sheets at home. Their form is currently declining.
4
Is the Double Chance
bet worth it for Wolves vs Fulham?
A Double Chance
bet on Wolves or Draw (1X) is priced at 1.83. The combined implied probability is favorable given Wolves' home performance and Fulham's away struggles.
5
Is Over 1.5 goals a safe
bet in Wolves vs Fulham?
The probability for Over 1.5 goals is 78%, with
odds of 1.22. Given that 60% of Fulham's and 50% of Wolves' recent matches have exceeded 1.5 goals, this
bet is relatively safe.
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Premier League17.05.2026
