Willem II vs PEC Zwolle — Prediction | Eredivisie | 06/11/2026

Eredivisie|06/11/2026

Willem II

62%

VS

PEC Zwolle

16%

62%

22%

16%

Willem IIDraw 22%PEC Zwolle

🏆

Prediction

Willem II @ 3

⚽

Over 2.5 Goals

YES @ 1.48

58% probability

🔁

Both Teams Score

YES @ 1.4

52% probability

Model Confidence

62%

50%Model accuracy (last 60 days) — 134/266

★ BEST BET

Willem II Win @ 3

The model assigns Willem II a 62% chance of victory, which is significantly higher than the implied probability from odds of 3.00. Supported by their xG of 2.27 compared to PEC Zwolle's 0.79, and considering PEC Zwolle's poor away defense averaging 2.63 goals conceded per game, Willem II's chances are solid. The value edge is notable, making this a strong pick.

💡 PEC Zwolle's away defense has been leaky, conceding an average of 2.63 goals per game. This vulnerability could be pivotal against a Willem II side with a favorable xG of 2.27.

In Tilburg, the stage is set for a clash between Willem II and PEC Zwolle, two teams desperate to climb the Eredivisie ladder. For Willem II, rooted at the bottom with just two points and a distressing goal difference of -29, every match feels like a final. PEC Zwolle, slightly better off at 15th with eight points, isn't exactly cruising either, as their defensive frailties have been exposed repeatedly, especially on the road where they concede an average of 2.63 goals per match. Despite their lowly positions, there's intrigue in their head-to-head history, where goals come thick and fast. With Willem II's expected goals (xG) significantly higher at 2.27 compared to PEC Zwolle's 0.79, the home side might just fancy their chances of turning the tide.

📊 Team Statistics

Willem II

0

Wins

0

Draws

0

Losses

Avg Scored–

Avg Conceded–

Over 2.50%

BTTS0%

Clean Sheets0

Failed to Score0

PEC Zwolle

LDWLL

4

Wins

3

Draws

13

Losses

Avg Scored1.15

Avg Conceded2.35

Over 2.565%

BTTS55%

Clean Sheets2

Failed to Score7

Home3W 1D 8L

Away1W 2D 5L

Head-to-Head: Statistical Deep Dive

In their last ten encounters, PEC Zwolle slightly edges Willem II with four wins to Willem's three, alongside three draws. Goals tend to flow, with an average of 2.4 per match, and half of these games surpass the 2.5 goals mark. The last meeting saw PEC Zwolle triumph 2-1 away, a reminder of their potential to disrupt. However, Willem II secured a 1-0 victory in their previous home clash, indicating a competitive balance. Interestingly, the past few seasons have seen results swing both ways, suggesting no clear dominance. This pattern of unpredictability could mean a tight contest, but the goal averages hint at potential fireworks.

Model Output & Final Recommendation

The Poisson model signals a 62% probability for a Willem II victory, with draw and PEC Zwolle win probabilities at 22% and 16% respectively. Their xG advantages hint at a home win, backed by a confidence score of 62%. The recommended bet is Willem II to win at odds of 3.00, offering a substantial value edge over the implied probabilities. Alternatively, the Over 1.5 goals market provides a sound fallback, priced at odds of 1.12 with an 81% probability. The primary risk lies in Willem II's inability to convert xG into actual goals, which could hinder their chances if PEC Zwolle capitalizes on counter-attacks.

Goal Markets: Value Assessment

The Over 2.5 goals market is priced at odds of 1.48, with a model probability of 58%, offering a slight value edge. However, the Over 1.5 goals market is more attractive, boasting an 81% model probability at odds of 1.12, suggesting a safer bet with significant coverage. Both teams have seen 65% of PEC Zwolle's matches exceed two goals, making the Over 2.5 a viable option. BTTS is another competitive market, given its 52% probability and odds of 1.4. Given the defensive records, Over 1.5 appears the safest play, with a strong edge in probability terms.

Statistical Report: Every Number That Matters

Willem II's attacking efficiency remains a puzzle, as their xG of 2.27 suggests potential not yet realized in actual goals. PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have averaged just 1.13 goals scored away from home, despite their xG indicating they should be faring slightly better. On the defensive front, PEC Zwolle's away record sees them conceding a hefty 2.63 goals per game. Willem II's defensive woes are mirrored in their average of 3.5 goals conceded per match at home, highlighting vulnerabilities on both sides. When it comes to goals markets, PEC Zwolle's matches see Over 2.5 goals 65% of the time, while Willem II's defensive lapses contribute to this trend. Historically, head-to-head clashes average 2.4 goals per meeting, with both teams scoring in half of these encounters. The confidence model leans heavily on Willem II's xG superiority and PEC Zwolle's defensive lapses to justify a home win, aided by a solid 62% probability.

Risk Scenarios: The Case Against

The prediction for Willem II to win is not without risks. Their form has been abysmal, losing the last five matches with glaring defensive gaps. PEC Zwolle, despite their away struggles, have shown they can score, evidenced by a 2-2 draw against Sparta Rotterdam and a 4-1 thrashing of GO Ahead Eagles. If Willem II fails to tighten their defense, PEC Zwolle could exploit this, especially given Willem's tendency to concede heavily at home. Moreover, the psychological burden of being bottom of the table could weigh on Willem II, affecting their performance. An alternative market such as Over 1.5 goals might mitigate these risks, pricing in the likelihood of goals regardless of which side finds the net. The recommended bet stands, but cautious bettors might consider safety markets to hedge against potential upsets.

Frequently Asked Questions