Toronto sets the stage for Senegal vs Iraq, a World Cup clash where both teams are eager to claim their first points. Senegal, ranked 3rd, needs to rebound from a 3-1 loss to France, while Iraq looks to recover from a 4-1 defeat against Norway. Despite the neutral venue, Senegal’s form suggests they could dominate,
Free Prediction: Senegal vs Iraq | World Cup | 26/06/2026
21.06.2026
07:11
Senegal
61%
VS
Iraq
14%
Prediction
Senegal @ 1.3
Over 2.5 Goals
NO @ 1.8
48% probability
53%Model accuracy (last 60 days) — 103/193
★ BEST BET
Over 1.5 @ 1.25
Senegal is given a 61% probability of winning, significantly higher than the implied probability of 76.9% at odds of 1.30. With an impressive average of 2.2 goals scored per game and a solid defensive record of 0.9 goals conceded per game, Senegal's strength on both ends of the pitch is evident. Iraq, on the other hand, struggles with only 1.05 goals scored per game, making Senegal the clear favorite.
💡 Senegal's home-like record shows an average of 2.7 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match, indicating their offensive prowess and defensive solidity even in neutral venues.
Final Result
Senegal 5 : 0 Iraq
Our prediction: 1 ✓
Toronto sets the stage for Senegal vs Iraq, a World Cup clash where both teams are eager to claim their first points. Senegal, ranked 3rd, needs to rebound from a 3-1 loss to France, while Iraq looks to recover from a 4-1 defeat against Norway. Despite the neutral venue, Senegal's form suggests they could dominate, with a scoring average of 2.2 goals per game. Iraq's defensive frailties, conceding 1.2 goals per game, might just tip the balance in Senegal's favor. With both teams battling to avoid an early exit, expect a match full of intensity and strategic plays.
Team Statistics
Venue
BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario
36,045 capacity · Grass
📊 Additional Markets
Double Chance 1X1.04
Double Chance X23.5
Double Chance 121.15
Over 1.5 Goals1.25
Under 1.5 Goals3.75
Recent Form: Scoring & Defensive Patterns
Senegal's recent form reveals a mixed bag. They lost 3-1 to France but previously secured a 2-0 win over Peru. Scoring 44 goals in 20 matches, their attack remains potent. Conversely, Iraq's form is less promising, with a 4-1 loss to Norway and only two wins in their last five games. With 21 goals scored and 24 conceded over 20 matches, their defense is vulnerable. Senegal's home-like strength, averaging 2.7 goals per game, suggests they are more likely to capitalize on Iraq's weaknesses.
Best Bet Recommendation
The strongest market is Senegal to win, with a 61% model probability against an implied 76.9% at odds of 1.30. Senegal's scoring average of 2.2 goals and Iraq's defensive record bolster this pick. Although no direct H2H data is available, Senegal's recent performances reflect their capability. An alternative is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.25, supported by Senegal's scoring frequency. For a combination bet, consider Senegal to win and Over 1.5 goals, capitalizing on their offensive strength.
Goal Markets: The Full Analysis
Expected goals suggest Senegal's attacking edge with 1.85 xG, while Iraq lags behind at 0.8 xG. The Over 2.5 market, priced at odds of 1.80, has a 48% probability, slightly below the breakeven point. Senegal's matches exceed this line 55% of the time, while Iraq's do 40%, hinting at a cautious approach. BTTS is priced at odds of 2.25, with only a 45% likelihood, as Senegal's defensive strength often shuts opponents out. Over 1.5 goals, with a 74% probability at odds of 1.25, is a safer play given Senegal's scoring consistency. With goals typically coming later, live bettors may find value in second-half markets. Ranked by value: Over 1.5, Under 2.5, and BTTS No.
The Decisive Statistical Battlegrounds
Key match-ups will define this clash. Senegal's attack, averaging 2.2 goals per game, meets Iraq's defense, which concedes 1.2 goals per game. Expect Senegal to exploit this with their attacking depth. In midfield, Senegal's ability to control possession will challenge Iraq, who manages only 38% possession on average. Finally, set-pieces could be crucial; Senegal's aerial prowess contrasts with Iraq's vulnerability. The most decisive battleground is Senegal's attack versus Iraq's defense, aligning with the recommended market of Senegal to win.
Frequently Asked Questions
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Will there be over 2.5 goals in Senegal vs Iraq?
The over 2.5 goals market has a 48% probability, slightly below the breakeven point. Priced at odds of 1.80, it's a cautious yes, given Senegal's scoring ability and Iraq's defensive issues.
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